Asteroid 2024 YR4

2024 YR4 is an asteroid with an estimated diameter of 40 to 90 metres (130 to 300 ft) that is classified as an Apollo-type (Earth-crossing) near-Earth object. From 27 January to 20 February 2025, it had an impact rating of 3 on the Torino scale, with an estimated probability greater than 1% that it would impact Earth on 22 December 2032. The estimated impact probability peaked at 3.1% on 18 February 2025, but later predictions generated from additional observations produced a negligible chance of an Earth impact in 2032 and reduced the asteroid's Torino rating to 0. It retains a small chance of impacting the Moon in 2032.

The asteroid was discovered by the Chilean station of the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) at Río Hurtado on 27 December 2024.[1][2] When additional observations indicated an impact probability of greater than 1%, the first step in planetary defense responses was triggered, prompting additional data gathering using several major telescopes and leading United Nations–endorsed space agencies to begin planning asteroid threat mitigation.[14][15][16]

The asteroid made a close approach to Earth at a distance of 828,800 kilometres (515,000 miles; 2.156 lunar distances) on 25 December 2024, two days before its discovery, and will be moving away from the Sun until November 2026. Its next close approach will take place on 17 December 2028.[3] Analysis of spectral and photometric time series suggests that 2024 YR4 is a stony S-type (most likely), L-type or K-type asteroid, with a rotation period of approximately 19.5 minutes.[9] A number of known asteroids, including other virtual impactors,[a] follow orbits somewhat consistent with that of 2024 YR4.[17]

On 22 December 2032, 2024 YR4 will come closest to Earth sometime between 05:30 and 12:00 UTC,[3][e][f] approaching from the direction of Sagittarius.[27] Calculations using an observation arc of 71 days, from 25 December 2024 to 6 March 2025, give 2024 YR4 a 1-in-5-million (0.00002%) chance of impacting Earth on 22 December 2032.[8] The nominal (best-fit) closest approach to Earth on 22 December 2032 is at 08:43 UTC (with an uncertainty of about 3.2 hours in the closest-approach time), at a distance of 262,000 km (163,000 mi), with a 3-sigma uncertainty of 154,000 km (96,000 mi). The nominal closest approach to the Moon occurs at 15:15 UTC, with a nominal distance of about 6,000 km (3,700 mi).[3]

Due to 2024 YR4's size and previously greater-than-1% impact probability, it reached a rating of 3 on the Torino scale on 27 January 2025, which prompted the International Asteroid Warning Network to issue a notice on 29 January 2025.[16][28] This was the second-highest Torino rating ever reached by an asteroid, behind 99942 Apophis, which briefly reached a rating of 4 in late 2004.[28] NASA's Sentry gave 2024 YR4 a rating on the Palermo scale as high as −0.18 on 18 February 2025, when it had a 55-day observation arc and a 3.1% chance of impacting the Earth in 2032.[8] This gave 2024 YR4 a corresponding impact hazard of 66% of the background hazard level, given the asteroid's relatively small size of 60 metres (200 ft).[g] The asteroid never exceeded the background risk of a random asteroid of the same size impacting Earth by 2032, which corresponds to a Palermo rating of 0. On 18 February 2025, the European Space Agency's Aegis listed a 2.8% chance of an Earth impact in 2032.[29] On 23 February 2025 (with a 60-day observation arc), 2024 YR4 was reduced to a Torino rating of 0, meaning that the likelihood of a collision is effectively zero.

As of 13 March 2025, NASA gives 2024 YR4 a Palermo rating of −5.37 and rules out a 2032 impact with 5-sigma confidence.[8] The European Space Agency removed the chance of a 2032 impact on 8 March 2025.[7] NEODyS removed the chance of a 2032 impact on 1 March 2025.[30]

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_YR4

**** DISCLAIMER: The possible impact chart is near a few ajor cities and time range is given in UTC. We chose the median of the proposed timeframe, also, we chose Lagos Nigeria as the location for this event chart given it is in the middle of the proposed path. Please note, the time frame may & path most likely will change in the future, therefore, we cannot rely on some of the symbols associated with faster moving celestial bodies and /or points ( e.g. moon, glyph etc).